IBM CEO Arvind Krishna on Global Trade, AI, and the Future of Work

12/03/2025 01:33 AM
Emma

IBM CEO Arvind Krishna is making a bold case for global trade, AI’s role in coding, and the future of scientific discovery. Speaking at SXSW, Krishna challenged AI hype, defended the need for international talent, and predicted a future where AI will become more efficient—but not necessarily more revolutionary.

As AI continues to dominate headlines, Krishna’s views provide a balanced counterpoint to the extreme optimism of AI pioneers like OpenAI’s Sam Altman.

Global Trade and Talent: The Key to U.S. Growth?

Despite growing anti-globalization sentiment in the U.S., Krishna remains a strong believer in free trade and international talent exchange.

💡 His reasoning? According to historical economic studies, every 10% increase in global trade leads to a 1% increase in local GDP. This means that closing off trade opportunities could actually harm domestic growth.

Beyond goods, Krishna argues that restricting visas for skilled workers is a mistake:

✅ The U.S. should welcome global talent, as diversity in expertise drives innovation
✅ International workers boost the U.S. economy by filling skill gaps and increasing productivity
✅ The best talent from around the world helps U.S. workers upskill, making the country more competitive

Krishna’s stance contrasts sharply with the increasing restrictions on H-1B work visas and student visas. His message to policymakers is clear: Limiting access to international talent could hurt U.S. innovation rather than protect it.

AI’s Role in Coding: 90% Automation or Just 30%?

One of the most debated topics in tech today is how much AI will automate software development.

At SXSW, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei made a bold claim: 90% of all code could be written by AI within 3–6 months.

🔥 Krishna strongly disagrees.

🔹 IBM’s CEO predicts a more modest 20-30% AI automation rate—at least in the near future
🔹 AI will make programmers more productive, not replace them
🔹 Complex coding tasks will still require human expertise

Krishna compared AI’s role in coding to:

🖩 Calculators in math – They boost efficiency, but don’t replace mathematicians
🎨 Photoshop in art – It enhances creativity, but doesn’t make artists obsolete

Rather than eliminating programming jobs, AI will allow companies to build more software faster, increase productivity, and potentially grow market share.

The Future of AI: Efficiency vs. Intelligence

Krishna also weighed in on AI’s future potential, particularly in scientific discovery and whether AI could achieve “superintelligence.”

AI Will Become More Efficient, But Not More Intelligent

Krishna sees AI becoming significantly cheaper and less energy-intensive in the coming years.

🔹 He pointed to DeepSeek, the Chinese AI company that showed how smaller AI models can be highly effective
🔹 AI will likely use less than 1% of the energy it consumes today through smarter architecture and training techniques

However, Krishna is not convinced AI will drive new knowledge creation. Unlike OpenAI’s Sam Altman, who believes “superintelligent AI” is coming soon, Krishna believes AI will always rely on human-generated knowledge rather than discovering new breakthroughs.

🚨 IBM’s CEO argues that AI is not “thinking” but simply learning from existing data. He doubts AI will:

Make scientific discoveries beyond what Einstein, Oppenheimer, or Nobel Prize winners could imagine
Achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) in the near future
Drive entirely new knowledge creation on its own

Instead, Krishna believes that quantum computing—not AI—will be the real driver of groundbreaking scientific advancements.

Final Thoughts: A Different Vision for AI and the Future

Krishna’s pragmatic take on AI, global trade, and technology’s future offers a balanced counterpoint to the hype surrounding AI automation and superintelligence.

✅ Global trade and international talent are key to economic growth
✅ AI will enhance coding productivity, but won’t eliminate programmers
✅ AI will become more efficient, but won’t replace human-driven scientific discovery

In a world where AI-driven predictions often swing between utopia and catastrophe, Krishna’s perspective serves as a middle ground—highlighting both AI’s strengths and its real limitations.